Analysis of the epidemiological burden of age-related macular degeneration in China based on the data of global burden of disease / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVES@#Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is one of the 3 major eye diseases recognized by WHO to prevent blindness, and which is the main cause of irreversible visual impairment in the elderly. This study aims to analyze the disease epidemiological burden, and provide a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of AMD in China based on the data in global burden of disease (GBD) 2019.@*METHODS@#The prevalent cases/prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALYs)/DALY rate of AMD and socio-demographic index (SDI) for global and China were searched from the GBD 2019 database to analyze the epidemiological trend, age-period-gender trend of AMD in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the relations between the prevalence and SDI.@*RESULTS@#In 2019, the prevalence of AMD in China was at a high level in the world, and the number of prevalent cases were 1.93 times of that in 1990. The prevalence and DALY rates continued to rise. The age trend of AMD in China was high at the middle of the age stages and low at the two ends, and which was higher in the female than in the male. With the increase of SDI, the prevalence of AMD was increased linearly.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The disease burden of AMD in China is increased significantly and is positively correlated with the social development from 1990 to 2019. It is of great significance to study the relationship between epidemilolgical data of AMD and social development level for diagnosis treatment and policy of AMD.

Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to population aging in China, 1990‒2050 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to High Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories from 1990 to 2019 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#This study aimed to estimate spatiotemporal variations of global heat-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden from 1990 to 2019.@*METHODS@#Data on the burden of heat-related CVD were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify heat-induced CVD burden. We calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALY rate (ASDR) per 100,000 population to compare this burden across regions. Generalized linear models were applied to evaluate estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The correlation between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rate was measured using the Spearman rank test.@*RESULTS@#Heat-induced CVD caused approximately 90 thousand deaths worldwide in 2019. Global ASMR and ASDR of heat-related CVD in 2019 were 1.17 [95% confidence interval ( CI): 0.13-1.98] and 25.59 (95% CI: 2.07-44.17) per 100,000 population, respectively. The burden was significantly increased in middle and low-SDI regions and slightly decreased in high-SDI regions from 1990 to 2019. ASMR showed an upward trend, with the most considerable increase in low-latitude countries. We observed a negative correlation between SDI and EAPC in ASMR ( r s = -0.57, P < 0.01) and ASDR ( r s = -0.59, P < 0.01) among 204 countries.@*CONCLUSION@#Heat-attributable CVD burden substantially increased in most developing countries and tropical regions.

Burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#Epilepsy accounts for a significant portion of the global disease burden. However, little is known about the disease burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces.@*METHODS@#We assessed the burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2019. Burden was measured as incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by age, sex, year, and province. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to determine the association between the provincial development level and age-standardized DALY rates of epilepsy from 1990 to 2019.@*RESULTS@#In 2019, epilepsy caused 1367.51 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 979.92-1837.61 thousand) DALYs, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 99.77 (95% UI: 71.33-133.52)/100,000. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for epilepsy in China were 24.65/100,000 and 219.69/100,000, increased by 45.00% (95% UI: 8.03-98.74%) and 35.72% (95% UI: 0.47-86.19%) compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of DALY caused by epilepsy in the age group under 25 years steadily decreased. The proportion of DALYs caused by epilepsy in people aged 50 years and over increased from 9.45% and 10.22% in 1990 to 29.01% and 32.72% for male and female individuals in 2019, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were seen in Tibet (4.26 [95% UI: 1.43-5.66]/100,000), Qinghai (1.80 [95% UI: 1.15-2.36]/100,000), and Yunnan (1.30 [95% UI: 0.88-1.62]/100,000), and the lowest mortality rates were in Guangdong (0.48 [95% UI: 0.39-0.64]/100,000), Zhejiang (0.56 [95% UI: 0.44-0.70]/100,000), and Shanghai (0.57 [95% UI: 0.41-0.73]/100,000). The age-standardized DALY rates across the country and in provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions generally decreased as their SDI increased.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The disease burden of epilepsy is still heavy in China, especially in the western provinces. The incidence and prevalence of epilepsy increased between 1990 and 2019, and the burden of epilepsy in the elderly increases gradually. This study provides evidence on epilepsy prevention and care of different regions in China.

Epidemiologia do câncer de pâncreas na América Latina e no Brasil / Epidemiology of pancreatic cancer in Latin America and Brazil

Introdução: O câncer de pâncreas é um tumor de alta letalidade, é o décimo segundo tipo mais comum e a sétima causa de morte, em ambos os sexos, no mundo. Estima-se que o câncer de pâncreas terá um aumento contínuo de incidência e mortalidade nos próximos 20 anos e isso causará um enorme ônus econômico para as populações em todo o mundo. Para o monitoramento e vigilância epidemiológica em câncer, pode-se apoiar em dados secundários como no Sistema de Informação em Mortalidade e dos registros de câncer (de base populacional e hospitalares) e estimativas a partir destes dados; por essa razão, investigou-se a epidemiologia do câncer de pâncreas na América Latina e no Brasil. Métodos: A tese compreende três manuscritos: (i) tendências de incidência, mortalidade e anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (DALYs), bem como a fração de mortes por câncer de pâncreas atribuíveis a fatores de risco comportamentais e metabólicos em países da América Latina e Caribe (LAC) entre 1990 e 2019 (Global Burden Disease, 2019); (ii) mortalidade por câncer de pâncreas no Brasil e unidades da federação entre 1979 e 2019, dados do Sistema de Informação em Mortalidade (SIM); (iii) comparabilidade, validade, completude e pontualidade para cinco tumores gastrointestinais, câncer de esôfago, estômago, colorretal, fígado e pâncreas, em Registros de Câncer de Base Populacional (RCBPs) brasileiros. Resultados: Observou-se um aumento na incidência, mortalidade e DALYs para o câncer de pâncreas em ambos os sexos na maioria dos países da América Latina e Caribe; as maiores taxas de incidência e mortalidade foram observadas no Uruguai e as menores no Haiti. Redução na fração de mortes atribuíveis ao tabagismo entre 1990 e 2019, para ambos os sexos nos países da LAC; entretanto, aumento dentre os fatores metabólicos. No Brasil, entre 1979 e 2019, foram notificados um total de 209.425 óbitos por câncer de pâncreas, com tendência de aumento de 1,5% ao ano em homens e 1,9% em mulheres. Houve tendência de aumento da mortalidade na maioria dos estados brasileiros, com maiores tendências nas regiões Norte e Nordeste, e correlação positiva entre o índice de desenvolvimento humano e a tendência de aumento da mortalidade por câncer de pâncreas. Dentre os dezesseis RCBPs brasileiros estudados, todos atenderam aos critérios de comparabilidade, porém metade apresentou índices abaixo do esperado para validade e completude para tumores de fígado e pâncreas. Para pontualidade, os dezesseis registros apresentaram mais de 48 meses de atraso na divulgação dos dados em relação ao ano calendário de 2023. Considerações finais: O câncer de pâncreas representa um desafio para a saúde pública nos países da América Latina e no Brasil, diante do desafio na redução da incidência e da mortalidade, assim como na vigilância epidemiológica em câncer através dos RCBPs brasileiros que necessitam de suporte para continuidade do monitoramento da incidência do câncer.

Introduction: Pancreatic cancer is a tumor of high lethality, is the twelfth most common type and the seventh cause of death, in both sexes, in the world. It is estimated that pancreatic cancer will have a continuous increase in incidence and mortality over the next 20 years and this will cause a huge economic burden for populations around the world. For epidemiological monitoring and surveillance in cancer, it is possible to use on secondary data such as the Mortality Information System and cancer registries (population-based and hospital) and estimates from these data, for this reason the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer in Latin America and Brazil was investigated. Methods: The thesis comprises three manuscripts: (i) trends in incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as the fraction of pancreatic cancer deaths attributable to behavioral and metabolic risk factors in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries between 1990 and 2019 (Global Burden Disease, GBD 2019); (ii) mortality from pancreatic cancer in Brazil and federal units between 1979 and 2019, data from the Mortality Information System (SIM); (iii) comparability, validity, completeness and timeless for five gastrointestinal tumors, esophageal, stomach, colorectal, liver and pancreatic cancers, in the Brazilian Population-Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs). Results: An increase in the incidence, mortality and DALYs of pancreatic cancer was observed in most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the highest incidence and mortality rates were observed in Uruguay and the lowest in Haiti. The fraction of pancreatic cancer deaths attributable to smoking reduced between 1990 and 2019 for both sexes in LAC countries, however, it increased for metabolic risk factors. In Brazil, between 1979 and 2019, a total of 209,425 deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported, with a trend of increase of 1.5% per year in men and 1.9% in women. There was an increase in mortality in most Brazilian states, higher in the North and Northeast regions with a positive correlation between the improvement of the human development index and the trend of increased mortality from pancreatic cancer. Among the sixteen Brazilian PBCRs studied, all agreement the criteria of comparability, but half have lower than expected indices for validity and completeness for liver and pancreatic tumors, and as for timeless the sixteen records are more than 48 months late in the release of data in relation to the calendar year 2023. Conclusions: Pancreatic cancer represents a challenge for public health in LAC and Brazil, given the challenge in reducing incidence and mortality, as well as in epidemiological surveillance in cancer through Brazilian PBCRs to ensure the activity and stability for continued monitoring of cancer incidence.

Psicologia e diabetes no Brasil: um mapeamento de profissionais e de suas ações / Psychology and diabetes in Brazil: the mapping of professionals and their practices / Psicología y diabetes en Brasil: un mapeo de los profesionales y sus acciones

Pouco se sabe sobre a atuação do psicólogo no Brasil junto a pessoas com Diabetes Mellitus. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi identificar os psicólogos brasileiros que trabalham com essa população e suas ações. Foram convidados a responder a um questionário online psicólogos que atuam ou atuaram junto a pessoas com diabetes. Participaram 79 psicólogos, principalmente da região Sudeste (59,5%). Todos declararam que haviam cursado pósgraduação. Na amostra, predominou o gênero feminino (89,9%), com idade entre 26 e 40 anos (46,8%). A maioria dos que atuam com diabetes declarou-se autônoma ou voluntária, e quase metade trabalhava menos do que 10 horas semanais. Entre aqueles que deixaram de trabalhar com diabetes, apenas uma minoria tinha vínculo empregatício. Além do trabalho com pessoas com diabetes, a maior parte declarou exercer outras atividades profissionais, como atendimentos clínicos em consultórios particulares, sugerindo que esta não é a atividade principal. Majoritariamente, os respondentes declararam não ter conhecimentos suficientes para o atendimento específico às pessoas com diabetes. Discute-se a qualidade da formação profissional dos psicólogos no Brasil, a necessidade de aprimoramento em relação à atuação com pessoas com diabetes e as condições de trabalho.(AU)

Little is known about the practice of psychologists in Brazil caring for people with Diabetes Mellitus. The aim of this research was to identify the Brazilian psychologists who work with this population and describe their actions. Psychologists who work or have worked with people diagnosed with diabetes were invited to answer an online questionnaire. The 79 participants lived mainly in the Southeast Region (59.5%). All of them declared to have a graduate degree, most were female (89.9%), aged 26 to 40 years (46.8%). Most of those working with diabetes declared to be autonomous or voluntary, and almost half had a workload of less than 10 hours a week. Among those who stopped working with diabetes, only a minority had a formal employment contract. In addition, most of them stated that they had other professional activities related to clinical care in private offices, suggesting that working with diabetes is not their main activity. Mostly, respondents stated that they did not have enough knowledge to care for people with diabetes. The quality of professional education of psychologists in Brazil, the need for specific improvement in labor relations and conditions were discussed.(AU)

Son escasas las informaciones del trabajo de los psicólogos en Brasil con las personas con Diabetes Mellitus. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar los psicólogos brasileños que trabajan con esta población y describir sus acciones. Se invitó a psicólogos que trabajan o hayan trabajado con personas con diabetes a responder un cuestionario en línea. Participaron 79 psicólogos, principalmente de la región Sureste de Brasil (59,5%). Todos declararon tener posgrado. En la muestra hubo una mayor prevalencia del género femenino (89,9%), de edades de entre 26 y 40 años (46,8%). La mayoría de los que trabajan con personas con diabetes se declararon autónomos o voluntarios, y casi la mitad trabajaba menos de 10 horas a la semana. Entre los que dejaron de trabajar con las personas con diabetes, solo una minoría tenía una relación laboral. Además de trabajar con personas con diabetes, la mayoría afirmó tener otras actividades profesionales, como la atención clínica en consultorios privados, lo que sugiere que esta no es su actividad principal. La mayoría de los encuestados afirmaron que no tenían los conocimientos suficientes para atender específicamente a las personas con diabetes. Se discuten la calidad de la formación profesional de los psicólogos en Brasil, la necesidad de mejora en relación con el trabajo con personas con diabetes y las condiciones laborales.(AU)

Mortality from chronic kidney disease secondary to hypertension in Brazil: a study of the "Global Burden of Disease" / Mortalidade por doença renal crônica secundária à hipertensão no Brasil: um estudo do "Global Burden of Disease" / Mortalidad por enfermedad renal crónica secundaria a hipertensión en Brasil: un estudio de la "Global Burden of Disease"

Background and Objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the main complications resulting from arterial hypertension, and a recent increase in the incidence and prevalence of the disease has been reported, which can lead to an increase in mortality and complications resulting from the disease. Thus, the objective of study is to describe the variations in mortality from CKD secondary to arterial hypertension, in Brazil, between the years 1990 to 2019. Methods: Epidemiological study, with a quantitative approach and descriptive character, which analyzed data from the "Global Burden of Disease Study" (GBD) tool. Results: In all of Brazil's federative units, the estimate of deaths from CKD secondary to hypertension increased, with the Southeast region having the highest estimates. The States of Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, and Paraíba lead with the highest mortality rates. Regarding sex, in all years, higher rates were observed in males, however, over the years, this difference has been reduced. The age group of ≥70 years was the most affected, standing out with the highest death rates. Conclusion: the burden of CKD in Brazil has increased in the last 30 years; among the regions of the country, the Southeast recorded the highest estimates of deaths in all the years analyzed, being mainly higher among men.(AU)

Justificativa e objetivos: A doença renal crônica (DRC) é uma das principais complicações decorrentes da hipertensão arterial. Nos últimos anos, tem sido relatado um aumento na incidência e prevalência da doença, o que pode levar ao aumento da mortalidade e das complicações decorrentes da doença. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo foi descrever as variações da mortalidade por DRC secundária à hipertensão arterial no Brasil entre 1990 e 2019. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico, de abordagem quantitativa e caráter descritivo, que analisou dados da ferramenta Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Resultados: Em todas as unidades da federação, a estimativa de mortes por DRC secundária à hipertensão apresentou aumento, a região Sudeste apresentando as maiores estimativas. Os estados do Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul e Paraíba lideram as pesquisas com as maiores taxas de mortalidade. No que diz respeito ao sexo, em todos os anos foram observadas maiores taxas de DRC em indivíduos do sexo masculino; contudo, nota-se que tem ocorrido uma redução dessa diferença. A faixa etária de ≥70 anos foi a mais acometida, destacando-se com as maiores taxas de mortes. Conclusão: a carga de DRC no Brasil aumentou nos últimos 30 anos. Entre as regiões do país, o Sudeste registrou as maiores estimativas de mortes em todos os anos analisados, principalmente de homens.(AU)

Justificación y objetivos: La enfermedad renal crónica (ERC) es una de las principales complicaciones derivadas de la hipertensión arterial, y en los últimos años se ha reportado un aumento en la incidencia y prevalencia de la enfermedad, lo que puede conducir a un aumento de la mortalidad y de las complicaciones derivadas de esta, por lo tanto, el objetivo del estudio es describir las variaciones en la mortalidad por ERC secundaria a la hipertensión arterial en Brasil entre los años 1990 a 2019. Métodos: Estudio epidemiológico, con enfoque cuantitativo y carácter descriptivo, que analizó datos de la herramienta Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Resultados: En todas las unidades de la federación, aumentó la estimación de muertes por ERC secundaria a la hipertensión arterial, con la región Sudeste presentando las estimaciones más altas. Los estados de Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul y Paraíba lideran con las tasas de mortalidad más altas. Con respecto al sexo, en todos los años se observaron mayores tasas en los varones, sin embargo, con el paso de los años, esta diferencia se ha ido reduciendo. El grupo de edad de ≥70 años fue el más afectado, destacándose con las tasas de mortalidad más altas. Conclusión: la carga de ERC en Brasil ha aumentado en los últimos 30 años; de las regiones del país, el Sudeste registró las mayores estimaciones de muertes en todos los años registrados entre los analizados, siendo principalmente mayor entre los hombres.(AU)

Tripla carga de doenças no Brasil, 1990-2021: mudanças, inflexões e o fator covid-19 / La triple carga de las enfermedades en Brasil, 1990-2021: cambios, inflexiones y el factor covid-19 / Triple burden of diseases in Brazil, 1990-2921; changes, inflection points and the covid-19 factor

RESUMO Objetivo: descrever a evolução temporal pela tripla carga de doenças no Brasil, comparando a mortalidade do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM) e do estudo de Carga Global de Doenças (GBD). Método: estudo descritivo e exploratório sobre a evolução temporal das taxas e a distribuição proporcional de óbitos para doenças infecciosas, crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) e causas externas, usando duas fontes de dados de 1990 a 2021. As taxas no SIM foram ajustadas pelo método direto por idade e suavizadas por média móvel. As estimativas do GBD corrigem sub registro e causas garbage. Resultados: o Brasil registrou 817.284 óbitos (1990) e 1.349.801 (2019) no SIM, corrigidos em 17,7% e 1,9% no GBD para os respectivos anos. Nesse período, as taxas de mortalidade diminuíram nas duas fontes, respectivamente: DCNT -16,8% (433,7 a 360,7) e -34% (720,5 a 474,6); infeciosas -20,2% (86 para 68,6) e -57,2% (198,5 para 84,9); causas externas -17,3% (77,4 para 64) e -27% (100,9 para 73,7). O SIM mostrou redução -79,2% (138,6 para 28,8) para as taxas de causas mal definidas (CMD). Os fatores de correção do GBD foram maiores nos anos anteriores a 2005. Após 2019, as taxas infeciosas e CMD no SIM aumentaram respectivamente 207% (68,6 para 210,7) e 30,2% (28,8 para 37,5). Conclusão: o avanço da transição epidemiológica da carga de doenças e a melhoria da qualidade do dado de óbito no Brasil foram interrompidos pela covid-19, aumentando a carga das doenças infecciosas.

RESUMEN Objetivo: describir la evolución temporal de la triple carga de las enfermedades en Brasil, comparando la mortalidad del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad (SIM) y del estudio de la Carga Global de las Enfermedades (GBD). Método: estudio descriptivo y exploratorio sobre la evolución temporal de las tasas y la distribución proporcional de las defunciones por enfermedades infecciosas, enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) y causas externas, utilizando dos fuentes de datos, de 1990 a 2021. Las tasas en SIM se ajustaron por el método directo por edad y se suavizaron por media móvil. Las estimaciones de la GBD corregían el subregistro y las causas de la basura. Resultados: Brasil registró 817.284 muertes (1990) y 1.349.801 (2019) en el SIM, corregidas en 17,7% y 1,9% en el GBD para los respectivos años. En este periodo, las tasas de mortalidad disminuyeron en las dos fuentes, respectivamente: ECNT -16,8% (433,7 a 360,7) y -34% (720,5 a 474,6); infecciosas -20,2% (86 a 68,6) y -57,2% (198,5 a 84,9); causas externas -17,3% (77,4 a 64) y -27% (100,9 a 73,7). El SIM mostró una reducción del 79,2% (de 138,6 a 28,8) en las tasas de causas mal definidas (CMD). Los factores de corrección de la GBD fueron mayores en los años anteriores a 2005. Después de 2019, las tasas de infecciosas y de CMD en el SIM aumentaron respectivamente un 207% (68,6 a 210,7) y un 30,2% (28,8 a 37,5). Conclusión: el progreso de la transición epidemiológica de la carga de la enfermedad y la mejora de la calidad de los datos de mortalidad en Brasil fueron interrumpidos por COVID-19, aumentando la carga de las enfermedades infecciosas.

ABSTRACT Objective: to describe the time evolution by the triple burden of diseases in Brazil, comparing the mortality data from the Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade, SIM) and from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Method: a descriptive and exploratory study on the time evolution of the rates and the proportional distribution of deaths for infectious diseases, chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs) and external causes, using two data sources and encompassing the period from 1990 to 2021. The SIM rates were adjusted by means of the direct method by age and smoothed by the mobile mean. The GBD estimates correct under-recording and garbage causes. Results: Brazil recorded 817,284 (1990) and 1,349,801 (2019) deaths in the SIM, corrected by 17.7% and 1.9% in the GBD for each year. During this period, the mortality rates decreased in both sources, respectively: CNCDs -16.8% (from 433.7 to 360.7) and -34% (from 720.5 to 474.6); infectious diseases -20.2% (from 86 to 68.6) and -57.2% (from 198.5 to 84.9); external causes -17.3% (from 77.4 to 64) and -27% (from 100.9 to 73.7). The SIM showed a 79.2% reduction (from 138.6 to 28.8) for the ill-defined causes (IDCs). The GBD correction factors were higher in the years before 2015. After 2019, the rates corresponding to infectious diseases and IDCs in the SIM were increased by 207% (from 68.6 to 210.7) and by 30.2% (from 28.8 to 37.5), respectively. Conclusion: the advances in the epidemiological transition of the burden of disease and improvement in the death data in Brazil were interrupted by COVID-19, thus increasing the burden of infectious diseases.

Carga de la enfermedad y costos en salud por la exposición a mercurio: revisión de alcance / Burden of disease and health costs from mercury exposure: Scoping review

Resumen Introducción: El mercurio circula por el aire; persiste en suelos, sedimentos y agua, y causa efectos en la salud humana. Las mujeres en edad fértil y los neonatos son la población más vulnerable. Objetivo: Analizar las evidencias sobre la carga de enfermedad ocasionada por la exposición a mercurio, así como el impacto económico sobre el sistema de salud. Metodología: Revisión de alcance de la literatura, de las bases de datos PUBMED y EPISTEMONIKOS, búsqueda manual de documentos técnicos de entidades oficiales de diferentes continentes. Resultados: Se identificaron 311 registros en bases de datos y 4 en búsqueda manual en entidades oficiales; 19 artículos fueron incluidos. Discusión: Predomina la afectación del desarrollo neurológico y cognitivo en niños de madres expuestas y lactantes. Los costos se midieron por la pérdida del coeficiente intelectual. Conclusión: Efectos en salud por la exposición a metilmercurio se traducen en gastos para la sociedad y los sistemas de salud.

Abstract Introduction: Mercury circulates through the air, persists in soils, sediments and water, and can affect human health. Women of childbearing age and newborns are the most vulnerable population. Objective: To analyze the evidence on the burden of disease caused by mercury exposure, as well as the economic impact on the health system. Methodology: Review of the literature, PUBMED and EPISTEMONIKOS databases, manual search of technical documents of official entities from different continents. Results: A total of 311 records were identified in databases and four in manual searches from official entities; 19 articles were included. Discussion: Neurological and cognitive development in children of exposed mothers and infants are more predominant. Costs were measured by IQ loss. Conclusion: Health effects of methylmercury exposure translate into costs for society and health systems.

Injury mortality among Chinese aged 5 to 24 years from 1990 to 2019 / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the mortality of injuries among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide the theoretical basis for the formulation of policies related to injury prevention.@*METHODS@#The mortality data of children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, and the change in mortality between 1990 and 2019 was described. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to determine the age effect, period effect and cohort effect for road injuries, drowning and self-harm.@*RESULTS@#Injury mortality of Chinese children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years decreased from 46.22 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 40.88-52.12] per 100 000 to 20.36 (95%UI: 17.58-23.38) per 100 000 between 1990 and 2019. Sub-group analysis revealed a pattern that was basically consistent with the overall trend. From 1990 to 2019, drowning declined from the first leading cause of injury death among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China to the second while road injuries became the one which caused the most death among them, and self-harm was the third leading cause of injury death. The top three causes of injury death in each subgroup were basically the same as the overall, but the order was different in each subgroup. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the death risk of road injuries, drowning, and self-harm all decreased with period and cohort. Aside from that, the death risk of road injuries showed a U-shape trend, which decreased at first but increased soon afterwards, with the increase of age, while the death risk of drowning decreased with age and the death risk of self-harm increased with age.@*CONCLUSION@#In China, the injuries mortality among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years has decreased over the last three decades. However, specific cause-related injury deaths, manifested differently in different sub-groups. Targeted policies and intervention should be proposed to reduce the mortality of children and adolescents in accordance with the characteristics of injuries death in different genders and age groups.

Mortality trend of chronic respiratory diseases in China, 1990-2019 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To analyze mortality and its trend of chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the provincial results of China from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the average annual percent change (AAPC) of standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were analyzed by using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1, and the age-standardized mortality rate of CRD was calculated by using the GBD 2019 world standard population. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory of GBD, the attributable deaths due to 12 CRD risk factors were estimated, including smoking, indoor air pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulates and smog exposure, environmental particulate pollution, low temperature, passive smoking, ozone pollution, occupational exposure to silica, occupational asthma, high body mass index, high temperature and occupational exposure to asbestos. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and standardized mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) showed a downward trend (P<0.001). The number of COPD deaths decreased from 1 244 000 (912 000 - 1 395 000) in 1990 to 1 037 000 (889 000 - 1 266 000) in 2019. AAPC=-0.9% (95%CI: -1.5% - -0.3%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate decreased from 217.9/100 000 (163.3/100 000 - 242.0/100 000) in 1990 to 65.2/100 000 (55.5/100 000 - 80.1/100 000) in 2019. AAPC= -4.2% (95%CI:-5.2% - -3.2%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from asthma decreased from 40 000 (30 000 - 58 000) in 1990 to 25 000 (20 000 - 31 000) in 2019. AAPC=-2.0% (95%CI: -2.6% - -1.4%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate of asthma decreased from 6.4/100 000 (4.7/100 000 - 9.5/100 000) in 1990 to 1.5/100 000 (1.2/100 000 - 1.9/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-5.1% (95%CI: -5.8% - -4.4%), P<0.001. The number of pneumoconiosis deaths decreased from 11 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 1990 to 10 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 2019, AAPC=-0.2%(95%CI:-0.4% - 0.1%), P=0.200; The standardized mortality rate of pneumoconiosis decreased from 1.4/100 000 (1.0/100 000 - 1.7/100 000) in 1990 to 0.5/100 000 (0.4/100 000 - 0.7/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-3.1% (95%CI: -3.4% - -2.8%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from pulmonary interstitial diseases and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased from 3 000 (3 000 - 6 000) in 1990 to 8 000 (6 000 - 10 000) in 2019, AAPC=3.5% (95%CI: 2.7% - 4.2%), P<0.001; The corresponding standardized mortality rate changed little from 1990 to 2019, and AAPC was not statistically significant.The age-standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were higher in men than those in women. In 1990 and 2019, the mortality rates of COPD, asthma, pneumoconiosis and interstitial pulmonary disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased with age. In 2019, the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for smoking, environmental particulate pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, low temperature exposure and passive smoking were 71.1% (68.0% - 74.3%), 24.7% (20.1% - 30.0%), 19.3% (13.0% - 25.4%), 15.7% (13.6% - 18.3%) and 8.8% (4.5% - 13.1%) respectively in men, and the PAFs for environmental particulate pollution, smoking, low temperature exposure, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, and passive smoking were 24.1% (19.6% - 29.3%), 21.9% (18.7% - 25.2%), 16.4% (14.0% - 19.2%), 15.6% (10.2% - 21.1%) and 14.7% (7.9% - 21.3%) respectively in women. Conclusions: During 1990-2019, the overall death level of CRD decreased significantly in China, but it is still at high level in the world. Active prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce the death level caused by CRD.

Fractions and trends of cancer burden attributable to population ageing in China / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective: To analyse the fractions and trends of cancer burden attributable to population ageing, adult population size, age-specific incidence and case fatality rate in China between 1990 and 2019. Methods: We extracted data from the database of Global Disease Burden Study, including the number of cancer cases, deaths and corresponding population of 29 cancer types for Chinese adults aged 25 years and older from 1990 to 2019. Using the cancer deaths in 1990 as a reference, we employed a decomposition method to express cancer deaths as the product of four factors among men and women from 1991 to 2019. The fractions attributable to cancer deaths among total cancer deaths in that year were calculated and its time trends were assessed. Results: In 2019, we estimated that there were 2 690 000 cancer deaths among adults aged 25 and older in China. Of which, cancer deaths attributable to population ageing, adult population size, age-specific cancer incidence and case fatality rate were 740 000 (27.5% of total cancer deaths in 2019), 1 091 000 (40.6%), 198 000 (7.3%) and -728 000 (-27.1%), respectively. In 2019, lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, liver cancer and colorectal cancer ranked the top five cancers among population ageing attributable to cancer deaths. For 29 cancer types, the fractions of population ageing attributable to cancer deaths among total deaths of that cancer were ranged from 9.3% to 40.5%. The ageing attributable to cancer deaths and its fractions were increased rapidly since 1997, while those estimates were negative before 1997. Conclusions: The population ageing process in China was one of the major contributors to the increase in cancer burden in recent years, which has caused more cancer deaths than that by age-specific cancer incidence. Accordingly, activities toward healthy ageing would be the key to cancer prevention and control.

Mortalidade de adolescentes e adultos jovens brasileiros entre 1990 e 2019: uma análise do estudo Carga Global de Doença / Mortality among Brazilian adolescents and young adults between 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Resumo Trata-se de análise de indicadores de mortalidade de brasileiros com idades entre 10 e 24 anos. Foram analisados os dados do Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, utilizando números absolutos, proporção de óbitos e taxas de mortalidade específicas entre 1990 e 2019, segundo faixa etária (10 a 14, 15 a 19 e 20 a 24 anos), sexo e causas de morte para Brasil, regiões e estados brasileiros. Houve redução de 11,8% nas taxas de mortalidade de indivíduos com idades entre 10 e 24 anos no período investigado. Em 2019, ocorreram 13.459 mortes entre mulheres, correspondendo à redução de 30,8% no período. Entre homens ocorreram 39.362 óbitos, redução de apenas 6,2%. Houve aumento das taxas de mortalidade no Norte e Nordeste e redução em estados do Sudeste e Sul. Em 2019, entre mulheres a primeira causa de morte foram lesões por transporte, seguidas por violência interpessoal, mortes maternas e suicídio. Para os homens, a violência interpessoal foi a primeira causa de morte, em especial no Nordeste, seguida das lesões por transporte, do suicídio e dos afogamentos. Execuções policiais passaram do 77º para o 6º lugar. Este estudo revelou desigualdades na mortalidade de adolescentes e adultos jovens segundo sexo, causas de óbito, regiões e estados brasileiros.

Abstract Mortality indicators for Brazilians aged between 10 and 24 years old were analyzed. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study, and absolute numbers, proportion of deaths and specific mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, according to age group (10 to 14, 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 years), sex and causes of death for Brazil, regions and Brazilian states. There was a reduction of 11.8% in the mortality rates of individuals aged between 10 and 24 years in the investigated period. In 2019, there were 13,459 deaths among women, corresponding to a reduction of 30.8% in the period. Among men there were 39,362 deaths, a reduction of only 6.2%. There was an increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast and a reduction in the Southeast and South states. In 2019, the leading cause of death among women was traffic injuries, followed by interpersonal violence, maternal deaths and suicide. For men, interpersonal violence was the leading cause of death, especially in the Northeast, followed by traffic injuries, suicide and drowning. Police executions moved from 77th to 6th place. This study revealed inequalities in the mortality of adolescents and young adults according to sex, causes of death, regions and Brazilian states.

Mortalidade por câncer de esôfago no Brasil: uma análise de série temporal a partir do estudo da carga global de doenças / Esophageal cancer mortality in brazil: a time-series analysis from the global burden of disease study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: In the world, around 450,000 new cases of esophageal cancer are diagnosed each year. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trend of esophageal cancer mortality rates in Brazil between 1990-2017. METHODS: A time series study using data on mortality from esophageal cancer in residents ≥30 years in Brazil from 1990 to 2017. Data was estimated by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and analyzed according to sex, age group and federal unit of Brazil. The standardized rates according to age were calculated by the direct method using the standard GBD world population. Annual average percentage change and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated for mortality by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: The age-standardized mortality rate in males was 20.6 in 1990 and 17.6/100,000 in 2017, increasing according to age, being 62.4 (1990) and 54.7 (2017) for ≥70 years. In women, the age-standardized mortality rate was 5.9 in 1990 and 4.2/100,000 in 2017. There was a reduction in mortality rates in all age groups and both sexes with great variation among the states. CONCLUSION: Despite the high mortality rates for esophageal cancer in Brazil, the trend was decreasing, but with regional differences. Mortality was around four times higher in men.

RESUMO CONTEXTO - No mundo, cerca de 450.000 novos casos de câncer de esôfago são diagnosticados a cada ano. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência das taxas de mortalidade por câncer de esôfago no Brasil entre 1990-2017. MÉTODOS: Estudo de série temporal utilizando dados de mortalidade por câncer de esôfago em residentes ≥30 anos no Brasil de 1990 a 2017. Os dados foram estimados pelo estudo Global Burden of Disease (GBD) e analisados segundo sexo, faixa etária e unidade federal de Brasil. As taxas padronizadas de acordo com a idade foram calculadas pelo método direto usando a população mundial padrão do GBD. Mudança percentual média anual e intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC 95%) foram calculados para mortalidade por regressão de joinpoint. RESULTADOS: A taxa de mortalidade padronizada por idade no sexo masculino foi de 20,6 em 1990 e 17,6 / 100.000 em 2017, aumentando conforme a idade, sendo 62,4 (1990) e 54,7 (2017) para ≥70 anos. Nas mulheres, a taxa de mortalidade padronizada por idade foi de 5,9 em 1990 e de 4,2 / 100.000 em 2017. Houve redução das taxas de mortalidade em todas as faixas etárias e em ambos os sexos com grande variação entre os estados. CONCLUSÃO: Apesar das altas taxas de mortalidade por câncer de esôfago no Brasil, a tendência é decrescente, mas com diferenças regionais. A mortalidade foi cerca de quatro vezes maior nos homens.

Impacto econômico da infecção por influenza no Brasil: uma análise sob a perspectiva dos sistemas de saúde e da sociedade em 2019 / Economic impact of influenza infection in Brazil: analysis from the health systems and society perspective in 2019

Objetivo: Estimar o impacto econômico da influenza no Brasil sob a perspectiva dos pagadores de serviços de saúde e da sociedade. Métodos: Utilizando um modelo econômico e dados da literatura e de uma base de dados censitária para fins de reembolso (SIH/SUS), foi calculado o número de casos esperados de influenza resultantes em visitas ambulatoriais, internações e mortes atribuídas à doença no Brasil. Para a construção do modelo econômico, foram considerados custos obtidos por meio dos dados extraídos do Datasus e de fontes publicamente disponíveis para a atenção pública e para a atenção privada, respectivamente. Os custos foram reportados em real brasileiro (BRL). Resultados: Foi estimada a ocorrência anual de 14,9 milhões de casos de influenza no Brasil, segmentados em aproximadamente 97 mil hospitalizações por ano decorrentes de influenza e 5,8 milhões de visitas ambulatoriais. Nos cálculos apresentados, cerca de 12 milhões de dias de produtividade foram perdidos e 78 mil anos de vida foram perdidos em um ano. O impacto econômico da doença foi calculado em 5.622.438.761 BRL, sendo os custos indiretos associados os mais representativos, atribuindo cerca de 69% (3.889.541.452 BRL) do total. Os custos médicos diretos e out-of-pocket representaram aproximadamente 23% (1.312.175.732 BRL) e 7% (420.721.577 BRL), respectivamente. Conclusão: Apesar dos esforços relacionados à vacinação de diversos grupos, a influenza apresenta uma importante carga econômica, reforçando a importância de medidas de saúde pública para a redução de carga da doença. Esse impacto é especialmente relacionado aos custos indiretos gerados pela perda de dias de produtividade e anos de vida perdidos

Objective: To estimate the economic impact of influenza in Brazil, considering society and healthcare payers perspectives. Methods: The expected number of influenza cases resulting from outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths attributed to the disease in Brazil was calculated using an economic model, literature data, and a census database for reimbursement purposes (SIH/SUS). Costs were obtained through data extracted from Datasus and publicly available sources for public and private care, respectively, and reported in Brazilian real (BRL). Results: The occurrence of 14.9 million cases of influenza per year in Brazil was estimated, with about 97 thousand hospitalizations and 5.8 million outpatient visits. In addition, about 12 million productivity days and 78,000 years of life were lost in one year. Total disease economic impact was 5,622,438,761 BRL. Indirect cost was the most representative source of burden, about 69% (3,889,541,452 BRL) of the total. Direct and out-of-pocket medical costs represented approximately 23% (1,312,175,732 BRL) and 7% (420,721,577 BRL), respectively. Conclusion: Despite the efforts related to the vaccination of several groups, influenza has an important economic impact, reinforcing the relevance of public health strategies to reduce the disease burden. This impact is especially related to the indirect costs generated by productivity and years of life lost.

Redistributing deaths by ill-defined and unspecified causes on cancer mortality in Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE to discuss the impact four different redistribution strategies have on the quantitative and temporal trends of cancer mortality assessment in Brazil. METHODOLOGY This study used anonymized and georeferenced data provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health (BMoH). Four different approaches were used to conduct the redistribution of ill-defined deaths and garbage codes. Age-standardized mortality rates used the world population as reference. Prais-Winsten autoregression allowed the calculation of region, sex, and cancer type trends. RESULTS Death rates increased considerably in all regions after redistribution. Overall, Elisabeth B. França's and the World Health Organization methods had a milder impact on trends and rate magnitudes when compared to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 method. This study also observed that, when the BMoH dealt with the problem of redistributing ill-defined deaths, results were similar to those obtained by the GBD method. The redistribution methods also influenced the assessment of trends; however, differences were less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS Since developing a comparative gold standard is impossible, matching global techniques to local realities may be an alternative for methodological selection. In our study, the compatibility of the findings suggests how valid the GBD method is to the Brazilian context. However, caution is needed. Future studies should assess the impact of these methods as applied to the redistribution of deaths to type-specific neoplasms.

The Association of Socioeconomic Status with the Burden of Cataract-related Blindness and the Effect of Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure: An Ecological Study / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#To assess the association of socioeconomic status with the burden of cataract blindness in terms of year lived with disability (YLD) rates and to determine whether ultraviolet radiation (UVR) levels modify the effect of socioeconomic status on this health burden.@*Methods@#National and subnational age-standardized YLD rates associated with cataract-related blindness were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2017. The human development index (HDI) from the Human Development Report was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. Estimated ground-level UVR exposure was obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) dataset of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).@*Results@#Across 185 countries, socioeconomic status was inversely associated with the burden of cataract blindness. Countries with a very high HDI had an 84% lower age-standardized YLD rate [95% confidence interval ( @*Conclusion@#Long-term high-UVR exposure amplifies the association of poor socioeconomic status with the burden of cataract-related blindness. The findings emphasize the need for strengthening UVR exposure protection interventions in developing countries with high-UVR exposure.

Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome prevalence, incidence, and mortality in China, 1990 to 2017: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 data / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#Despite almost two decades of well-funded and comprehensive response efforts by the Chinese Government, human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) remains a major problem in China. Yet, few studies have recently examined long-term trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence, and mortality at the national level. This study aimed to determine the prevalence, incidence, and mortality trends for HIV/AIDS over the past 28 years in China.@*METHODS@#We conducted a descriptive, epidemiological, secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data. To evaluate trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality over the study period from 1990 to 2017, we calculated values for annual percentage change (APC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using joinpoint regression analysis.@*RESULTS@#A significant increase in HIV/AIDS prevalence was observed for 1990 to 2009 (APC: 10.7; 95% CI: 10.4, 11.0; P < 0.001), and then remained stable for 2009 to 2017 (APC: 0.7; 95% CI: -0.3, 1.7; P = 0.1). A significant increase in HIV incidence was also observed for 1990 to 2005 (APC: 13.0; 95% CI: 12.6, 13.4; P < 0.001), and then a significant decrease was detected for 2005 to 2017 (APC: -6.5; 95% CI: -7.0, -6.1; P < 0.001). A significant increase in AIDS-related mortality rate was detected for 1990 to 2004 (APC: 10.3; 95% CI: 9.3, 11.3; P < 0.001), followed by a period of stability for 2004 to 2013 (APC: 1.3; 95% CI: -0.7, 3.3; P = 0.2), and then another significant increase for 2013 to 2017 (APC: 15.3; 95% CI: 8.7, 22.2; P < 0.001).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Although prevalence has stabilized and incidence has declined, AIDS-related mortality has risen sharply in recent years. These findings suggest more must be done to bring people into treatment earlier, retain them in treatment more effectively, actively seek to reenter them in treatment if they dropout, and improve the quality of treatment and care regimens.